TCNJ

17 FALL 2024 1. THE DEMOGRAPHIC CLIFF In the second half of this decade, the overall number of college-age Americans will steadily decline. This drop will be especially pronounced in New Jersey and other Northeastern states, from which TCNJ traditionally draws its students. BERNSTEIN: The good news is, in the immediate term, demand for admission to TCNJ remains strong — we do not have empty seats at present — and we have an excellent brand. We also have a clear-eyed conception of what our challenges are. We are speaking honestly and transparently about them, and we have a sense of what we now need to do. In all these respects, we're facing our future from a position of strength. "We will remain a top choice for undergraduates in the years ahead." Of course, we're not taking anything for granted. Continuing to execute our mission when the student population is shrinking requires us to move beyond and add to our traditional market. This new audience is populated with returning students (who had previously interrupted their education), part-time students, older students, students who don't necessarily want to earn a degree but want a certificate or credential, and also students who might want a postgraduate degree. To be sure, I do think we will remain a top choice for undergraduates in the years ahead, but it is not realistic to think that's the only thing we need to do to continue to flourish. 2. A DECLINE IN STATE FUNDING Public colleges used to be able to count on the state for a large portion of their annual operating budgets. Over the past 25 years, however, appropriations for higher education have declined in the vast majority of states, New Jersey included. That has forced public colleges and universities to rely more heavily on tuition revenue and incur more debt as they invest in critical needs. BERNSTEIN: In 1990, the state provided 63% of our funding. Today, that number is about 25%. There's a close correlation between that decline over the past several decades and the increase in our tuition. We've done our best to hold the line on costs, often making difficult choices A SNAPSHOT OF HIGHER ED TODAY IN FOUR GRAPHS 2025 562K 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2032 552K 538K 522K 516K 509K 2031 501K 498K Number of public high school graduates in the Northeast in 100k STATE FUNDING TUITION AND BORROWING Source: National Center for Education Statistics Number of public high school graduates in the Northeast

• Cover